THE CURRENCY TRADER’S BLOG

 

 

Stagflation, reccesion worries the concern for Markets as we head int oJuly

Hi there Traders,

 

So, new week. New opportunities. What’s in store for us this week. Well, today is the 4th of July – US Bank Holiday which means liquidity this afternoon will be shallow.  Wednesday is an important day for the US Market. We have the US FED FOMC Meeting Minutes at 7 pm BST. Other important news events are

• AUD		Cash Rate			1.35%	0.85%
  			AUD		RBA Rate Statement

• USD

  ADP Non-Farm Employment Chang

 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

 

MATRIX

Everywhere you look there is anxiety. A couple of pairs stand out, while the rest are pants.  Remain patient. At times like this, it is best to remain calm, and apply the rules that you have been taught. Big news later this week. FED, FOMC statement is going to be telling.

 

Global Indices

 

German Trade Balance came out below 0 for the 1st time in years—Contraction taking hold of the German economy. Recession worries will definitely be the talking point here.

Deutsche Bank CEO: We would like to see the ECB raise interest rates more quickly than previously announced.

 

Commodities

 

Gold, Silver, and Copper continue to contract. Risk-Averse effect taking shape across the globe. Talk of global recessions has everyone concerned about STAGFLATION taking shape.

 

 

BTC Weekly Chart

Bitcoin has breached its Weekly 200sma. Not a good sign at all. The same thing has happened on a monthly too. Not a good sign at all. For July, we are looking at a bear continuation to be the outcome. Looking at the lowly $12k level as a LT target.

 

 

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Look at the FX Charts for July 2022

Hi there Traders,

 

So, July is here. So, with any new month, we need to know what we can expect. That means taking a look at what is in store for macro data going forward. That means looking at the Economic calendar to find those stats that will have an impact on chart sentiment. See this month’s stats below. I have gone ahead and highlighted those that will have a bigger impact;

 

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Good morning Traders,

 

End of the month today. One could expect to see retracements/pullbacks against long-term trends as Investors look to re-shuffle their trading portfolios. Having a look at the chart below on the performance for each currency, one can see that it was a month for ‘RISK AVERSE’ positioning. The only two stand-out performances are classed as ‘safety’.  Risk appetite was pushed to one side as more data pointed to a weaker picture on the horizon. Traders are betting that a US recession will derail any further chances of interest rate hikes beyond 2022…  The stats point to a strong internal US market. Jay Powell noted that in a discussion with other institutional heads in Portugal yesterday. However, in the same answer, said that it would be a painful time ahead for Americans as inflation was not likely to slow at any point soon and that would continue to effect the cost of living in the US.

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