THE CURRENCY TRADER’S BLOG
Online money exchange
News on online money exchange – EURGBP has been on steep fall over the past couple of weeks after failing to break the monthly fib level highs at 0.88175. You will also notice that Price broke the 200sma around the 29th August. This is the 1st time the 200sma has been breached since mid November 2012.
One thing to notice however that Price is now testing a previous MAJOR S&R level at 0.8400 mark (round number) Price has on a number of occasions in the past consolidated at this level and bounced – This level is also at Weekly fib level – the 38.2% level (look at chart below). So for this to continue to looking negative – this strong level of support will need to be breached. The sooner the better. The longer Price takes to do so the more likely Price will start to look upside… I’d make a note to wait for a Daily close below this level. A full bodied engulfing candle lower would go a long way to putting more confirmation to the downside.
One to keep an eye on for the coming week……
Online Money Exchange – EURGBP Daily chart analysis
Online Trading UK
Looking at EURUSD on Daily chart of online trading in UK, I’ve noticed that the Daily candle on Thursday punched through the 200sma level. On the Asian session we noticed a pullback to the underside of this 200sma at 1.3146. With it being Non Farm Friday (1st Friday of new month) the figures forecasted are for a positive outcome. If this was the case then we’d expect the EUR to continue to fall. This would back up what we are potentially seeing unfold on the EURUSD chart. If this does play out in this order we could expect EURUSD to fall towards the monthly fib level (blue horizontal line) which stands at 1.3028.
Have a look at the chart posted below for more info……
Online Trading in UK
Today, September 6, US non-farm payrolls will be released. This particular figure measures the monthly change in the number of recently employed individuals in the United States. As the NFP name suggests, this total does not include people employed in the farming sector, nor private household employees, non-profit organization employees, or government employees.
If the released NFP number is higher than the number forecasted by economists, the US dollar is likely to increase in value. After all, the creation of jobs is an extremely important indicator when it comes to the overall health of an economy.
Will Non Farm Payrolls Rise?
Many economists predict that the NFP will increase and may come in at approximately 180,000 for the month of August. In July, the NFP actually came in below analyst expectations at 162,000. However, the NFP for June came in at 188, 000. Therefore, you can see that the NFP can be difficult to predict and there is always a chance that this number will surprise investors.
THIS IS A REASON THAT WE DO NOT RECOMMEND TRADERS PARTICIPATE IN THE MARKETS AROUND THIS NEWS!!
With that said, most economic indicators were fairly positive this August in the United States. For instance, unemployment benefits claims – measured weekly – became lower throughout the month and hiring appeared to be positive. Thus, there is a good chance that these encouraging signs may indicate that NFP employment figures may be up for the month of August as well.
What Will Happen if the NFP Increases?
If the released NFP number is higher than expected, the USD should be higher in value when compared with other currencies such as the JPY, EUR, the GBP and emerging market currencies. Additionally, if the number is strong, there is a good chance that the US government will begin tapering – perhaps by approximately $15 billion in September. As it stands right now, the government currently spends about $85 billion per month on this program.